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Manchester City striker Raheem Sterling
Free soccer tips, best bets and analysis for Manchester City v Newcastle in the Premier League on Sunday.
where to watch
Sky Sports main event, 4.30pm Sunday
Manchester City winner and under 3.5 goals
1pt 11-10 bet365
Joelinton will receive a card
1pt 7-2 betting fair
City of Man
John Stones is unlikely to return from his hamstring injury and could be joined by Kyle Walker to watch from the stands.
Ryan Fraser and Fabian Schar are absent, although Callum Wilson and Kieran Trippier could return after lengthy layoffs.
Manchester City’s second dose of semi-final heartache saw the treble aspirations evaporate in the space of weeks, so expect Pep Guardiola’s men to come out swinging as they are closing in on their last remaining trophy target, the Premier League.
Wednesday night’s Champions League loss to Real Madrid came weeks after Wembley’s humiliation at the hands of Liverpool in the FA Cup, a pair of last four flops that suddenly changed the mood around the Etihad.
So now they are sure to give it their all in the remaining four top-flight bouts, starting with a showdown with traditional Newcastle whippersnappers.
City have already beaten Eddie Howe’s side 4-0 at St James’s Park this season and Newcastle have never won a league game at the Etihad – and City have been playing there for almost two decades.
The layers see nothing but a successful rebound from City although you won’t get rich backing them at odds of around 1-6.
And given how much Newcastle have improved under Howe since Christmas, the hosts probably shouldn’t be 1-6 shots down anyway.
The problem with City is that no matter how scarred they are from Wednesday’s loss to Madrid, their pace, mindset and approach won’t change.
But it’s hard to believe they won’t be physically undercooked after their ordeal at the Bernabeu. They usually overpower their opponents, but that might be more attritional given Newcastle’s upswing, so the best bet might be for them to beat Newcastle in a game featuring no more than three goals.
Sixteen of Newcastle’s last 18 games – since that 4-0 City defeat – have featured three or fewer goals. And last week, in that 1-0 loss at home to another group of free scorers, Liverpool, Howe’s side focused on staying compact and disciplined and were ‘rewarded’ with defeat narrow.
Liverpool dominated Toon’s midfield and City are sure to do the same, but that doesn’t necessarily add up to a landslide against an improved backline beyond recognition by the arrival of Dan Burn. and Howe’s we.
The final three contenders under Steve Bruce, the Magpies fly into the top ten under Howe, a remarkable turnaround that highlights how much improved they are. They have lost just four of their last 17 league games, three 1-0.
Expect Newcastle to defend valiantly and vigorously – and from the front. Joelinton, one of the top names on the Howe squad roster these days, scored just four goals but received eight yellows and it’s a fair price to collect the number nine stopping one of City’s main raids from afar.
Man City have scored a goal in each half of eight of their last nine encounters with Newcastle
City of Man
Penalty taker Kevin De Bruyne/Riyad Mahrez
Free kick assistant Kevin De Bruyne
Aerial threat on set piece Aymeric Laporte
card magnet Joao Cancelo
Penalty taker Chris Wood/Callum Wilson
Free kick assistant Bruno Guimaraes
Aerial threat on set piece Dan Burn
card magnet Joelinton
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FIRST PUBLICATION AT 4:05 PM, MAY 7, 2022